Energy modelling - EU Reference Scenario 2016

The EU Reference Scenario is one of the European Commission's key analysis tools in the areas of energy, transport and climate action. It is updated regularly as it projects the impact of current EU policies on energy and transport trends as well as changes in the expected amount of greenhouse gas emissions.

It provides projections for indicators, such as the share of renewable energy sources or levels of energy efficiency, on a five-year period up until 2050 for the EU as a whole and for each EU country.

The Reference Scenario is a projection of where our current set of policies coupled with market trends are likely to lead. The EU has set ambitious objectives for 2020, 2030 and 2050 on climate and energy, so the Reference Scenario allows policy makers to analyse the long-term economic, energy, climate and transport outlook based on the current policy framework.

The Reference Scenario is not designed as a forecast of what is likely to happen in the future. It rather provides a benchmark against which new policy proposals can be assessed.

With the active participation of national experts from all EU countries, the European Commission works in partnership with a modelling consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens to develop the Reference Scenario.

You will find in this dataset EU Reference Scenario 2016 main outputs.